So about the Traffic Impact Analysis…

Stop Kimbel Village

So in my day job I spend a lot of time teaching college students how to do research and design studies for public and social policy questions.    I also do research on optimal forecasting methods (albeit not for traffic), but the principals of forecasting are well known and carry across multiple disciplines.

Thankfully the developer of Kimbel Village sought out a Traffic lmpact Analysis of the proposed Kimbel Village project. This is a hard kind of forecast (known as a policy projection) to do since it depends on past data, the quality of the model, and it has to make a projection of what will happen given that it has not see the policy change in the past (i.e., we have no precedent for adding this kind of traffic).  (Another real world example of this is when a the head of the Federal Reserve is asked what inflation…

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